How India is following in China's footsteps as the future driver of global energy demand

The extensive growth and energy consumption seen in China through the 2000s and 2010s hint at the magnitude of changes and energy use increase expected in India over the 2030s and 2040s.

• India’s Real GDP per capita at PPP had risen to $7,100 in 2022, a rate China first reached in 2007/08 (“World development indicators”, World Bank, 2023). Real incomes are still less than half the level in China and a sixth of the average for the OECD), so there is enormous catch-up potential.
• Median population age is low at 27.9 years, which China reached in 1998. Massive Population growth averaged 1.1% per year over the 10 years from 2012 to 2022, similar to China’s over the ten years from 1988 to 1998 (“World population prospects”, United Nations Population Division, 2022).
• The share of the population living in urban areas is estimated to have reached 35% in 2022, a level reached in China around 2000 (“World urbanization prospects”, United Nations Population Division, 2018).
• Energy consumption reached 26 gigajoules per person in 2022, a rate China reached in the early 1990s. India’s primary energy consumption per person is less than a quarter of China’s and one-sixth of the average in the OECD economies, again implying an enormous potential to increase as the gap narrows. Total oil consumption climbed to 237 million metric tons in 2022, which China first reached in 2001 (“Statistical review of world energy”, Energy Institute, 2023).

How Indian refineries purchased Russian crude through Dubai in 2022 and 2023

Throughout 2022 and early 2023, Indian refineries purchased Russian crude through Dubai-based intermediaries such as Hinera Trading, Black Pearl Energy Trading, Starex Trading, and Pontus Trading, as well as Dubai-based proxies for Russian NOCs Everest Energy, DMCC and Lukoil Litasco.

Indian rupees were utilized to bypass SWIFT for Russian oil payments, resulting in Russia accumulating surplus rupees in vostro accounts within India. By mid-2023, Russia ceased accepting rupees for energy trade, leading private Indian refiners to pay for Russian oil in Chinese Yuan while state-owned refiners paid in UAE Dirhams.

In 2024, the threat of U.S. sanctions complicated UAE Dirham transactions, consolidating the dominance of only three middlemen—Lukoil Litasco Middle East, Hinera Trading, and Black Pearl Energy Trading—as primary sellers of Russian crude to India.

How Commodity Traders and Commodity Trading Companies stay out of the public eye

The physical commodities world is very oligopolistic and self-sustaining in that, all Commodities Trading Companies sell the same products (commodities) and have no distinct business advantages such as the possession of patents or proprietary technology, and there are high barriers to entry. These commodity houses mainly sell commodities to each other, or offer to take on risk from commodity producers through the use of financial derivatives. This creates a closed-end supply chain from supermarkets to commodity houses to raw producers fostering a culture of privacy and secrecy, not only from competitors but also the general public.



As physical commodity traders depend on superior trading/pricing information gleaned from proprietary IT trading platforms they get an added advantage if they are able to control critical assets through sourcing or origination requiring agile, entrepreneurial traders and trading teams to make secretive dealings with commodities producers.

Many of the big commodity houses (especially in agricultural commodities) also collectively lobby and support one another to ensure that their business thrives in the face of impending regulations and bills. They often make up the key constituents or backers of powerful organisations and unions that represent the collective interests of the producers of commodities, such as the Alliance for Abundant Food and Energy. By lobbying correctly, a commodity house can ensure that its' business remains out of the spotlight of public interest.

Why bitcoin is very different from all other altcoin "cryptocurrencies" - Part 3 - Bitcoin vs CBDCs - a detailed side by side comparison

Part 1 of this 3 part series introduced the high level of cyber crime taking place in the world of altocoin "cryptocurrencies". Part 2 of this 3 part series comparied Bitcoin and all other altcoin "crytocurrencies" to emphasize how bitcoin is indeed truly unique. While CBDCs are still in their infancy, this post compares in detail, the similarities and differences between Bitcoin and CBDCs:

Criterion	Bitcoin	CBDCs
Architecture/Issuer	Bitcoin has no central issuer. A peer-to-peer blockchain based network regulates bitcoins, transactions and issuance according to consensus in the network.	Reserve currency CBDCs such as the digital dollar or digital euro, non-reserve currency CBDCs such as the digital Singapore Dollar as well CBDCs of restricted currencies such as the digital Yuan have a two-tier architecture, where the central bank (Federal Reserve, ECB, MAS or PBOC) issues digital CBDC tokens to commercial banks (tier 1). Commercial banks maintain the digital wallets for user authentication, transaction authentication, user interface and define the smart contract languages to support the innovation and customization (tier 2)
Regulatory classification	Bitcoin is not a security according to the SEC as it was started by an unknown person or persons going by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto and does not exist as a way to raise money for a specific project for profit thereby failing the Howey test. SEC chairman Gary Gensler classifies bitcoin as a commodity to be regulated by the CFTC.	CBDCs are by their very nature a security and considered equivalent to cash as an asset class.
Purpose/ Use Cases	Originally intended as an electronic peer-to-peer payment system that is based on cryptographic proof, instead of trust that would operate free of central control. Now used more as store of value or digital gold.	Intended as an electronic peer-to-peer payment system substituting person to person or person to business cash payments.
Regulatory oversight and Compliance	Bitcoin’s decentralized Blockchain architecture is specifically designed not to be controlled by a state, a central bank or any other central authority for regulatory oversight and compliance.	The two-tier CBDC architecture aligns closely with existing banking system customer service delivery models, compliance mechanisms for anti-money-laundering, countering the funding of terrorism (AML/CFT) laws. CBDCs avoid disruptive disintermediation through enforcement of regulatory and compliance rules ensuring financial stability.
Account Management and Identity Checking	Bitcoin miners delegate this task implicitly to Bitcoin exchanges which maintain a traditional account and business relationship with each individual customer to address the gap between cryptographic keys in Bitcoin and human identity-checking tasks required to ensure compliance.	In CBDCs, Central banks delegate the task of account management and identity checking to commercial banks.
System Operators/Miners	In the Bitcoin architecture, system operators (miners) receive rewards to incentivize them to follow the Bitcoin protocol.	In the CBDC architecture, Central banks do not choose the system operators (miners) in the open system but determine the inflation rate.
Cross Border Payments	Cross-border payments with Bitcoin do not require currency conversions, as it takes place outside the Bitcoin system where counterparties convert from/into domestic currencies. The absence of intermediaries brings cost benefits and efficiency with no risks from operational or financial failures of intermediaries.	For Cross-border payments with CBDCs of reserve currencies such as the digital dollar or digital euro, participants from partnering jurisdictions are allowed access to the digital dollar or the digital euro which becomes available to counterparties inside and outside of that jurisdiction enabling cross-border payments.For Cross-border payments with CBDCs of non-reserve currencies, access and settlement arrangements aiming to facilitate cross-border interoperability are established among multiple CBDCs from different jurisdictions (mCBDC), built on strong technological, market structure and legal frameworks between central banks
Smart Contract capabilities	A Turing-incomplete script language allows the creation of custom smart contracts on top of Bitcoin like multisignature accounts, payment channels, escrows, timelocks, atomic cross-chain trading, oracles, or multiparty lottery with no operator	It is not necessary for a CBDC to provide smart contracts in order to fulfill its primary role as a digital currency, and some CBDCs such as the digital yuan are unlikely to do so.