How India is following in China's footsteps as the future driver of global energy demand

The extensive growth and energy consumption seen in China through the 2000s and 2010s hint at the magnitude of changes and energy use increase expected in India over the 2030s and 2040s.

• India’s Real GDP per capita at PPP had risen to $7,100 in 2022, a rate China first reached in 2007/08 (“World development indicators”, World Bank, 2023). Real incomes are still less than half the level in China and a sixth of the average for the OECD), so there is enormous catch-up potential.
• Median population age is low at 27.9 years, which China reached in 1998. Massive Population growth averaged 1.1% per year over the 10 years from 2012 to 2022, similar to China’s over the ten years from 1988 to 1998 (“World population prospects”, United Nations Population Division, 2022).
• The share of the population living in urban areas is estimated to have reached 35% in 2022, a level reached in China around 2000 (“World urbanization prospects”, United Nations Population Division, 2018).
• Energy consumption reached 26 gigajoules per person in 2022, a rate China reached in the early 1990s. India’s primary energy consumption per person is less than a quarter of China’s and one-sixth of the average in the OECD economies, again implying an enormous potential to increase as the gap narrows. Total oil consumption climbed to 237 million metric tons in 2022, which China first reached in 2001 (“Statistical review of world energy”, Energy Institute, 2023).