Friday 3 May 2013

Thanks to proposed ECB negative deposit rates Euro may go through a massive drop - what should expats do?


Austerity obsessed ECB lowered its main interest rate this week from 0.75% to 0.5% but along with this cut caused a stir about whether the bank might also cut the deposit rate, taking it into negative territory (which would mean banks having to pay for leaving money in the facility and would ostensibly push banks to lend more rather than hoard cash). ECB dropped hints on the negative deposit rates to express their frustration with banks that are hoarding cash and not lending. Clearly at the ECB, the money printing carrot does not seem to be enough to revive the moribund European economy so now this stick has been added to the equation. The unintended consequence of these negative deposit rates would be to put enormous downward pressure on the Euro jeopardizing the value of Euro denominated assets. Expats should look at reducing this risk by diversifying their portfolio through exposure to US dollar denominated assets. The most suitable vehicle for this type of optimal diversification would be an offshore bond.

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