With the arrest of Musharraf, Pakistan may be stumbling towards total anarchy - followed by a war

How the mighty have fallen! The man who took Pakistan very close to a nuclear war with India back in 1999  is now under arrest in his own country, an event which may ironically possibly trigger another nuclear confrontation with India attempting to finish the job he started. The Washington Post reports that Musharraf faces the prospect of prison or death, if convicted of treason and military commanders would certainly not accept the jailing of their former colleague at arms. Pakistan’s former military rulers have long been held responsible for the instability and militancy plaguing the country and for disrupting democratically elected governments and none have ever been held accountable.



This arrest may either be a game changer prompting the Pakistan army to try to broker a deal to send Musharraf packing - or more ominously - may create a diversion by opening an offensive against India in some way shape or form. Escalating response from India may bring inevitable instability in the whole region. The markets would do well to price in this geopolitical risk.